View 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map in a larger map

Don’t panic yet, though! Out of six cases of swine flu, also known as H1N1, confirmed in Pima County on Saturday, May 02, 2009 all six have recovered. Only two out of six were students in Tucson area.

So, lets hope the virus is not going to be as deadly as in Mexico and will pass by as a regular flu. What I still don’t understand though is why so many Mexicans have died from this virus?
- Is it just because swine flu is much more spread in Mexico than in the US?
- Is it because it began a month earlier in Mexico and US will follow the trend in a few weeks?
- Is there difference in climate or nutrition?
Does anyone have any ideas?

So far, the symptoms of swine flu in people are somewhat similar to the symptoms of regular human seasonal influenza and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also indicated to have sore throat, runny nose, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

However, someone with the flu symptoms would face a dilemma of going to the Doctor or Emergency Room and spend time around all other possible swine flu victims, or stay at home and guess on the nature of the disease. Not such a pleasant choice in my view.

Here is the current map of 2009 Swine Flu outbreak:

View H1N1 Swine Flu in a larger map

Influenza A Evolution (History):

1874 — (H3N8)
1890 — (H2N2) …………………….Pandemic
1902 — (H3N2)
1918 — (H1N1)……………………..”Spanish” Pandemic
1933 — (H1N1)……………………..First strains isolated
1947 — (H1N1)……………………..Variation detected
1957 — (H2N2)……………………..”Asian” Flu pandemic
1968 — (H3N2)……………………..”Hong Kong” Flu pandemic
1976 — (H1N1)……………………..”Swine” Flu, non-epidemic
1977 — (H1N1) + (H3N2)………….”Russian” Flu epidemic
2003 — (H3N2)……………………..”Fujian” Flu outbreak

In 1918-1919 “Spanish” influenza pandemic affected about 30 percent (500 million people or so) of the total world population, leaving 50 million (and arguably as much as 100 million) dead. There were 3 waves, with first being the mildest.

Asian flu pandemic struck in two waves, in the autumn of 1957 and then in early 1958, with very high rates of illness and an increase in fatalities. One million people were killed worldwide, but only 70,000 people died in the U.S., thanks to the vaccines.

Hong Kong Flu 1968 pandemic was milder than that of 1957, and spread more slowly than previous pandemics. Between 1 million and 4 million people are estimated to have died worldwide, and around 34,000 people were killed in the U.S.

2009 Swine Flu outbreak has started in March and is widely compared to the 1918 pandemic. Virus type, time of the year, average mortality age – there are a lot of similarities. In a month, the flu virus spread enormously fast around Mexico, US and other countries due to a lot of travel activity, especially during the spring break season.

As such, just to be on the safe side, we are keeping kids at home since Monday. I have cut my participation in any meetings and didn’t even go to the “Villas at Sabino Canyon” Condominiums Auction.

Unfortunately, today the news broke out that Maricopa County, Arizona, US now has 1 confirmed case of Swine Flu and 20 suspected cases (24 total cases). One of the Phoenix schools has been closed. Meanwhile, Tucson is so close to Mexico, California and Phoenix, that it is probably just a matter of days, if not hours, until we hear about Swine Flu case in Tucson, AZ.

I hope I’d be wrong on that.