View 2009 H1N1 Flu Outbreak Map in a larger map

Don’t panic yet, though! Out of six cases of swine flu, also known as H1N1, confirmed in Pima County on Saturday, May 02, 2009 all six have recovered. Only two out of six were students in Tucson area.

So, lets hope the virus is not going to be as deadly as in Mexico and will pass by as a regular flu. What I still don’t understand though is why so many Mexicans have died from this virus?
- Is it just because swine flu is much more spread in Mexico than in the US?
- Is it because it began a month earlier in Mexico and US will follow the trend in a few weeks?
- Is there difference in climate or nutrition?
Does anyone have any ideas?

So far, the symptoms of swine flu in people are somewhat similar to the symptoms of regular human seasonal influenza and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also indicated to have sore throat, runny nose, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

However, someone with the flu symptoms would face a dilemma of going to the Doctor or Emergency Room and spend time around all other possible swine flu victims, or stay at home and guess on the nature of the disease. Not such a pleasant choice in my view.

Here is the current map of 2009 Swine Flu outbreak:

View H1N1 Swine Flu in a larger map

Influenza A Evolution (History):

1874 — (H3N8)
1890 — (H2N2) …………………….Pandemic
1902 — (H3N2)
1918 — (H1N1)……………………..”Spanish” Pandemic
1933 — (H1N1)……………………..First strains isolated
1947 — (H1N1)……………………..Variation detected
1957 — (H2N2)……………………..”Asian” Flu pandemic
1968 — (H3N2)……………………..”Hong Kong” Flu pandemic
1976 — (H1N1)……………………..”Swine” Flu, non-epidemic
1977 — (H1N1) + (H3N2)………….”Russian” Flu epidemic
2003 — (H3N2)……………………..”Fujian” Flu outbreak

In 1918-1919 “Spanish” influenza pandemic affected about 30 percent (500 million people or so) of the total world population, leaving 50 million (and arguably as much as 100 million) dead. There were 3 waves, with first being the mildest.

Asian flu pandemic struck in two waves, in the autumn of 1957 and then in early 1958, with very high rates of illness and an increase in fatalities. One million people were killed worldwide, but only 70,000 people died in the U.S., thanks to the vaccines.

Hong Kong Flu 1968 pandemic was milder than that of 1957, and spread more slowly than previous pandemics. Between 1 million and 4 million people are estimated to have died worldwide, and around 34,000 people were killed in the U.S.

2009 Swine Flu outbreak has started in March and is widely compared to the 1918 pandemic. Virus type, time of the year, average mortality age – there are a lot of similarities. In a month, the flu virus spread enormously fast around Mexico, US and other countries due to a lot of travel activity, especially during the spring break season.

As such, just to be on the safe side, we are keeping kids at home since Monday. I have cut my participation in any meetings and didn’t even go to the “Villas at Sabino Canyon” Condominiums Auction.

Unfortunately, today the news broke out that Maricopa County, Arizona, US now has 1 confirmed case of Swine Flu and 20 suspected cases (24 total cases). One of the Phoenix schools has been closed. Meanwhile, Tucson is so close to Mexico, California and Phoenix, that it is probably just a matter of days, if not hours, until we hear about Swine Flu case in Tucson, AZ.

I hope I’d be wrong on that.

There is a great business rule – when one becomes too content and comfortable – it is time to move on and change. Usually, it is a difficult decision to make. This time around, however, it was an easy one for me.

Being in Real Estate for over 4 years and going through the Real Estate bubble and its burst, I’ve seen and experienced a lot. My clients & I have discovered that my financial background is immensely useful in understanding market conditions, dealing with the challenges and finding the opportunities. More and more often I assume the role of a Real Estate advisor, rather than just an agent.

As such, moving to Realty Executives – a company that fosters independence, flexibility and executive-type thinking is a great way for me to serve my clients better.

Out of 40 Condos presented, first two were bid up the most – both to $160,000. This however was the highest point of the auction. Steadily, the activity was drying up, with a few investors picking up handful of units that nobody else really wanted. The price ranged in between $122,500 and $145,000, though it is hard to pinpoint what was affecting the difference. Out of the five 3 BR Units (1,209 square feet each), the only upgraded one was sold for $160,000 (one of the above mentioned first two), the rest end up with the following prices: $140,000, $140,000, $135,000, $130,000 in the auction’s order.

During the auction, nine of the units came back (one of them twice), probably due to bidders’ inability to qualify or lack of the necessary paperwork / money. Overall, that cost the developer extra $52,500, as the consequent bids were lower in eight instances. For example, 2 BR/2 BA Unit 9-105 (1,017 square feet), described as “upgraded, private location, corner unit, fireplace” (auction sequence #22) was at first sold for $140,000. Yet, after it was re-auctioned, the final bid was $125,000.

Most of the vacant units were already completely renovated and upgraded by the developer and included granite counter tops, tiles in the kitchen, bathrooms and living area, new carpet in the bedrooms, new stainless steel appliances, bathtubs, sinks, etc… Two models even included flat screen plasma TV attached to the wall.

Overall, the auction was an amazing experience, worth even just to hear 120-125-120-125-125-125-120-125-120-125… with the speed of 120 words per minute or faster. It was though surprising for me to see starting bids of $89,000-$109,000 going up to $120,000-$125,000 almost immediately and then abruptly stop right there. Why wouldn’t the bidders get up there slowly? It might have saved them “a few bucks” at least in a few cases. However, looking at the face of the person opening the auction, one can strongly suspect that results didn’t meet Seller’s / Auctioneers’ expectations. Only time will show if this auction was a great buy for the investors or a timely escape for the Seller.

One thing is obvious. Those who were buying Condos to live in it have definitely won. They paid half of what was paid by their future neighbors just a few months prior. The location is definitely superior, considering proximity to Sabino Canyon, Ventana Golf and Racquet Club, Canyon Ranch Resort, etc… Moreover, those upgraded luxury condos are in the desirable by many School District 16, yet the new auction prices were still slightly better than many recently sold older non-upgraded condos in the TUSD school district. It was also much easier and safer process than buying short sales and foreclosures.

Good luck to those who won. Enjoy your new home!

Meanwhile, Tucson Multiple Listing Service is implementing some changes. On Monday, May 5th Tucson MLS will add “Cumulative Days on Market” in a new field showing DOM/CDOM. This will help agents to see total number of days the property has been listed without a 30 days break (regardless of any change of agent or brokerage). This information, however, will not be available on the public MLS site.

Long Realty agent’s tour:

MLS #:20816312: 5436 N Highpoint Ct, Tucson, AZ 85718. Promontory. $595,000.
MLS #:20811320: 4699 N Placita Ventana Del Rio, Tucson, AZ 85750. Ventana Del Rio. $649,900.
MLS #:20816130: 7365 E Autumn Dusk Pl, Tucson, AZ 85750. Ventana Reserve. $1,049,000.
MLS #:20813276: 7317 E Calle Alba Serena, Tucson, AZ 85750. Ventana Serena. $469,000.
MLS #:20815337: 5540 E Silver Mine Pl, Tucson, AZ 85750. Silverton. $749,000.
MLS #:20816763: 3614 E Kingler Spring Pl, Tucson, AZ 85718. Foothills Clusters. $499,000. Active contingent as of 05/08/08.
MLS #:20814755: 5651 N Paseo Niguel, Tucson, AZ 85718. Shadow Hills. $449,000.
MLS #:20814750: 5200 N Via Condesa, Tucson, AZ 85718. Catalina Foothills Estates. $749,000.